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Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Document Type

Research Article

Abstract

The study aims to forecast the production of Somalia's capture fisheries for the five years that follow, from 2024 to 2028, using the Box-Jenkins method and employing in-sample data spanning 50 years, from 1974 to 2023. Among the alternative models, ARIMA (1,1,1) was determined by the study to be the most suitable. The study obtained the data from World Bank development indicators (WDI) for the period between 1975 and 2023. According to the prediction's findings, the nation's capture fishing output will drop by roughly 1475 metric tons over the course of the following five years. The model was found to be white noise in the diagnostics, the moving average (MA) and autoregressive (AR) components were covariance stationary, and a rolling window test within a 95% confidence interval revealed the model's stability. The study suggests the Somali government should develop sustainable fishing strategies, standardize fish quality, strengthen oversight mechanisms, modernize fishing methods, and provide advanced training to fishermen. These measures can attract foreign investment and boost economic growth by promoting sustainable fishing practice.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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